As I enter Paul Whiteley’s office in the Department of Government at the University of Essex, he greets me with a warm smile and a friendly “Hello,” shaking my hand somewhat reluctantly – he doesn’t seem one for formalities.
Before I have even taken a seat, he’s already engaged me in conversation, asking what degree I’m studying and how it’s going for me. It’s easy to see how he is considered such a well-liked and approachable academic across campus, and a reliable expert in the eyes of the media.
His office is not huge or luxurious, but it is an inviting one – a simple layout with a desk, and a small table with chairs messily gathered around it, as though he’s just finished chatting with fellow colleagues from the Centre for Elections, Public Opinion and Parties (EPOP). His desk is tidy but busy, much like the man himself. Whiteley is not a pollster, but a dedicated researcher, that much is clear. His recent mathematical model designed to predict the outcome of this May’s general election is unlike any other. The forecast from his results puts Labour on 291 seats, the Tories on 281 and the Lib Dems on 48.
At the time we spoke, he said he believed current polls suggested no party would win an overall majority – a sentiment shared by many across the country. The most interesting implication recently for forecasts, he believes, comes from the findings of a series of Lord Ashcroft polls taken in Scotland, which Whiteley says, “show that the surge from Labour to the SNP during the Independence Referendum campaign, is stable – it’s not weakening.”
Reflecting on this, and his own model’s results, he states confidently, “I think, increasingly, it’s quite possible that the outcome will be a Labour-SNP coalition,” – a controversial thought, given the recent outcry against the simple suggestion of a possible future partnership to govern Britain. He also floats the notion, with a light chuckle, of a Lab-Lib-SNP coalition. “The reason I say that is that the SNP has said, without any equivocation, that they would not go into coalition with the Conservatives – they just wouldn’t do it.
“Lib Dems are taking up the same position as before, which is ‘whoever’s the largest party, we’ll negotiate with them first – it doesn’t guarantee we’ll go into coalition with them – but we’ll talk to them and others if necessary.’”
The degree of multi-party politics we’re seeing in the run-up to this May’s election is quite uncommon with the UK’s first-past-the-post electoral system. The old argument that our current system keeps extremist parties at bay, has evaporated into thin air – though, what constitutes ‘extremist’ is a heavily debated topic. In some people’s view, the UK Independence Party is extremist, but to their supporters, they’re merely nationalists.
Credit: Spectator | Whiteley’s forecast puts the Lib Dems on
So, surely it’s time to switch to a much more proportional electoral system? Whiteley agrees, but points out that there is no such thing as a perfect system: “Of course, people feel as though their vote is worth more [with proportional representation], but many have raised issues of accountability – proportional systems create coalitions and, as we’ve seen, it’s difficult to know who to blame when things go wrong.”
When two-party politics was the norm, our system worked. But now there are certainly many more independents or ‘floating voters’ who, as Whiteley points out, “will switch and change, depending on what what’s on offer at the time.” The political spectrum is much more vast, making predicting this upcoming election more difficult than getting through a conversation with David Cameron without him using the phrase ‘long-term economic plan’.
No models we have at the moment are capable of accurately looking at voting intentions on a seat-by-seat basis and, whilst Lord Ashcroft is conducting polls in individual constituencies, these are only in marginal seats, giving us only a glimpse of what may come – Whiteley has been pushing for further funding to be put into such polls on more individual seats, but says he has been met with some blockages.
“What we need are detailed surveys in – let’s say – the top 150 marginals and to do that several times, so that we can get an accurate map of the political landscape, but it’d very expensive to do that.”
This sort of polling could also worm out any other growing UKIP strongholds, such as current Labour areas in the North that haven’t yet been investigated for possible sneaky surges in support, which could lead to a surprise attack. I also suspect we could get a shock when the results for seats like the ultra-marginal Stockton South are called – and not a pleasant one at that. The Professor agrees, but says he still feels as though Labour hold the advantage in their heartland, and will most likely continue to do so.
But what are the weaknesses to models, such as his, that focus on individual seats? Whiteley openly admits that there are drawbacks, particularly the difficulties that come with creating a model based on past elections, given that some of the parties you’re looking at in this election, didn’t exist back then. He also concedes that his model is slightly off when it comes to the Lib Dems: “I think the Lib Dems, judging by the existing Ashcroft data, are likely to get between 30 and 32 seats; we’re calling it, from our model, 46 and I think that’s too high,” though he does believe that Sir Bob Russell will hold his Colchester seat, despite the fact the Lib Dems are polling nationally at around 8 per cent but, with the incumbency factor in his favour, Russell is, as Whiteley accurately puts it, “Mr Colchester.”
As for the Greens, Whiteley is of the opinion that this is still a surge, albeit not quite a tidal wave. “They’ve certainly raised their game and in some polls they’re higher than the Lib Dems… And they are appealing, as is clear with the surge in membership, to students.” As our chat begins to draw to a close, we move off toward the topic of devolution – quite a relevant topic, given Nicola Sturgeon’s appraised performance at the leaders’ debates. Whiteley says he’s keen on it, but doesn’t understand why the focus has been entirely on the Northern cities and regions – most likely because the government of the day, no matter the colour of their rosette, have never quite been sure what to do with the North for some time now, and so see devolution as a possible vote-winner.
Credit: Andrew Milligan/PA Wire and Ben Stansall/AFP | Whiteley thinks its ‘likely’ we’ll have an SNP-Labour coalition come May 7
Regardless, the Professor sees devolution as a step forward for democracy, “just so long as you don’t start imposing these enormous regional assemblies on people – just let the current bodies collaborate and work together, but with more powers.” He quotes the phrase “All politics is local,” from the former Speaker of the US House of Representatives, making the point that “people are more concerned about who’ll sort out the potholes in the road, than the grand scheme of things.” So, perhaps its time there was more emphasis placed, by politicians and political commentators alike, on the local as well as the national issues.
“There’s been so much hypocrisy around this subject; parties in opposition seem all for devolution, but then as soon as they get into power they brush it to the side, because they want to keep everything in Westminster.” Indeed, it would appear that this “London-centric politics,” as Whiteley calls it, could be the very thing disenfranchising so many voters. He believes the health of our democracy is in decline, though he notes that, globally, national election turnouts have a tendency to decline. “My primary concern is the youth vote… Perhaps its because they feel they don’t have as much stake in the system, but this reluctance to vote has created a politics for ‘the old’.”
As many readers will know, students have been the some of the hardest hit during these five years of Conservative austerity measures, whilst every elderly citizen is entitled to a winter fuel allowance, regardless of their income. But as Paul points out, this is because the over-65’s turnout the most, whilst the 18-25 year olds turn out the least. Of course, the incentive a government shouldn’t be to create policy that benefits only those who are more likely to go the ballot, but that’s the Westminster game that has been played for hundreds of years now.
His final message to all: “Get out there and vote, I can think of nothing more important, regardless of your age,” and in a time of multicolour politics, with such an unpredictable election and the crumbling of the two-party system having already begun – as well as the shadowy prospect of another five years of this government’s ‘long-term economic plan’ – I can’t think of a better time to get out the vote either.
Election forecast: Professor Paul Whiteley | The Rabbit Newspaper
As I enter Paul Whiteley’s office in the Department of Government at the University of Essex, he greets me with a warm smile and a friendly “Hello,” shaking my hand somewhat reluctantly – he doesn’t seem one for formalities.
Before I have even taken a seat, he’s already engaged me in conversation, asking what degree I’m studying and how it’s going for me. It’s easy to see how he is considered such a well-liked and approachable academic across campus, and a reliable expert in the eyes of the media.
His office is not huge or luxurious, but it is an inviting one – a simple layout with a desk, and a small table with chairs messily gathered around it, as though he’s just finished chatting with fellow colleagues from the Centre for Elections, Public Opinion and Parties (EPOP). His desk is tidy but busy, much like the man himself. Whiteley is not a pollster, but a dedicated researcher, that much is clear. His recent mathematical model designed to predict the outcome of this May’s general election is unlike any other. The forecast from his results puts Labour on 291 seats, the Tories on 281 and the Lib Dems on 48.
At the time we spoke, he said he believed current polls suggested no party would win an overall majority – a sentiment shared by many across the country. The most interesting implication recently for forecasts, he believes, comes from the findings of a series of Lord Ashcroft polls taken in Scotland, which Whiteley says, “show that the surge from Labour to the SNP during the Independence Referendum campaign, is stable – it’s not weakening.”
Reflecting on this, and his own model’s results, he states confidently, “I think, increasingly, it’s quite possible that the outcome will be a Labour-SNP coalition,” – a controversial thought, given the recent outcry against the simple suggestion of a possible future partnership to govern Britain. He also floats the notion, with a light chuckle, of a Lab-Lib-SNP coalition. “The reason I say that is that the SNP has said, without any equivocation, that they would not go into coalition with the Conservatives – they just wouldn’t do it.
“Lib Dems are taking up the same position as before, which is ‘whoever’s the largest party, we’ll negotiate with them first – it doesn’t guarantee we’ll go into coalition with them – but we’ll talk to them and others if necessary.’”
The degree of multi-party politics we’re seeing in the run-up to this May’s election is quite uncommon with the UK’s first-past-the-post electoral system. The old argument that our current system keeps extremist parties at bay, has evaporated into thin air – though, what constitutes ‘extremist’ is a heavily debated topic. In some people’s view, the UK Independence Party is extremist, but to their supporters, they’re merely nationalists.
Credit: Spectator | Whiteley’s forecast puts the Lib Dems on
So, surely it’s time to switch to a much more proportional electoral system? Whiteley agrees, but points out that there is no such thing as a perfect system: “Of course, people feel as though their vote is worth more [with proportional representation], but many have raised issues of accountability – proportional systems create coalitions and, as we’ve seen, it’s difficult to know who to blame when things go wrong.”
When two-party politics was the norm, our system worked. But now there are certainly many more independents or ‘floating voters’ who, as Whiteley points out, “will switch and change, depending on what what’s on offer at the time.” The political spectrum is much more vast, making predicting this upcoming election more difficult than getting through a conversation with David Cameron without him using the phrase ‘long-term economic plan’.
No models we have at the moment are capable of accurately looking at voting intentions on a seat-by-seat basis and, whilst Lord Ashcroft is conducting polls in individual constituencies, these are only in marginal seats, giving us only a glimpse of what may come – Whiteley has been pushing for further funding to be put into such polls on more individual seats, but says he has been met with some blockages.
“What we need are detailed surveys in – let’s say – the top 150 marginals and to do that several times, so that we can get an accurate map of the political landscape, but it’d very expensive to do that.”
This sort of polling could also worm out any other growing UKIP strongholds, such as current Labour areas in the North that haven’t yet been investigated for possible sneaky surges in support, which could lead to a surprise attack. I also suspect we could get a shock when the results for seats like the ultra-marginal Stockton South are called – and not a pleasant one at that. The Professor agrees, but says he still feels as though Labour hold the advantage in their heartland, and will most likely continue to do so.
But what are the weaknesses to models, such as his, that focus on individual seats? Whiteley openly admits that there are drawbacks, particularly the difficulties that come with creating a model based on past elections, given that some of the parties you’re looking at in this election, didn’t exist back then. He also concedes that his model is slightly off when it comes to the Lib Dems: “I think the Lib Dems, judging by the existing Ashcroft data, are likely to get between 30 and 32 seats; we’re calling it, from our model, 46 and I think that’s too high,” though he does believe that Sir Bob Russell will hold his Colchester seat, despite the fact the Lib Dems are polling nationally at around 8 per cent but, with the incumbency factor in his favour, Russell is, as Whiteley accurately puts it, “Mr Colchester.”
As for the Greens, Whiteley is of the opinion that this is still a surge, albeit not quite a tidal wave. “They’ve certainly raised their game and in some polls they’re higher than the Lib Dems… And they are appealing, as is clear with the surge in membership, to students.” As our chat begins to draw to a close, we move off toward the topic of devolution – quite a relevant topic, given Nicola Sturgeon’s appraised performance at the leaders’ debates. Whiteley says he’s keen on it, but doesn’t understand why the focus has been entirely on the Northern cities and regions – most likely because the government of the day, no matter the colour of their rosette, have never quite been sure what to do with the North for some time now, and so see devolution as a possible vote-winner.
Credit: Andrew Milligan/PA Wire and Ben Stansall/AFP | Whiteley thinks its ‘likely’ we’ll have an SNP-Labour coalition come May 7
Regardless, the Professor sees devolution as a step forward for democracy, “just so long as you don’t start imposing these enormous regional assemblies on people – just let the current bodies collaborate and work together, but with more powers.” He quotes the phrase “All politics is local,” from the former Speaker of the US House of Representatives, making the point that “people are more concerned about who’ll sort out the potholes in the road, than the grand scheme of things.” So, perhaps its time there was more emphasis placed, by politicians and political commentators alike, on the local as well as the national issues.
“There’s been so much hypocrisy around this subject; parties in opposition seem all for devolution, but then as soon as they get into power they brush it to the side, because they want to keep everything in Westminster.” Indeed, it would appear that this “London-centric politics,” as Whiteley calls it, could be the very thing disenfranchising so many voters. He believes the health of our democracy is in decline, though he notes that, globally, national election turnouts have a tendency to decline. “My primary concern is the youth vote… Perhaps its because they feel they don’t have as much stake in the system, but this reluctance to vote has created a politics for ‘the old’.”
As many readers will know, students have been the some of the hardest hit during these five years of Conservative austerity measures, whilst every elderly citizen is entitled to a winter fuel allowance, regardless of their income. But as Paul points out, this is because the over-65’s turnout the most, whilst the 18-25 year olds turn out the least. Of course, the incentive a government shouldn’t be to create policy that benefits only those who are more likely to go the ballot, but that’s the Westminster game that has been played for hundreds of years now.
His final message to all: “Get out there and vote, I can think of nothing more important, regardless of your age,” and in a time of multicolour politics, with such an unpredictable election and the crumbling of the two-party system having already begun – as well as the shadowy prospect of another five years of this government’s ‘long-term economic plan’ – I can’t think of a better time to get out the vote either.